Ira's Newsletter
Another of my occasional informative emails.
As always, you can choose to opt out by responding to opt out.
This email is not financial advice and is opinion only.
As many of you know, I was an institutional equity trader for over three decades and a chart analyst all dating back to 1980. I have seen a lot. The following are my thoughts about the 2024 stock market and what it means for physical precious metals.
The three major stock indices, S+P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ composite have had late afternoon declines five out of the last six trading days. The Dow Jones made a new all-time high on January 2, 2024 and the S+P 500 and NASDAQ Composite did not follow that with their own all-time highs. Interest rates have increased at the same time. Along with gold and silver increasing in value since mid-November.
Additionally,
The NASDAQ has not been this high since 1999.
Pending home sales at record low since 2001.
Monthly mortgage cost is the highest percentage above monthly rent since 2006.
40% of commercial real estate loans are under water.
The contrarian top indicator...Janet...inflation is transitory...Yellen, says the FED has achieved a soft landing.
If the Federal Reserve from their December meeting said that they may lower interest rates next year with declining inflation, why then is the stock market pausing? Ahh! There's the rub!
Look for financial news stories that are too optimistic. Last week, Yahoo! Finance had two front page stories with one headlined "New inflation reading could clinch Fed's dovish stance" and "Bonds are on their best run since March". Do these bullish headlines mean a stock market top? My opinion, and I have seen this before, is that there will be a recession next year. Remember, the stock market leads the economy by a few months and this year is the peak year of the 17-year housing and economic boom cycle. Stock market peaks in the fall of 2021 happened a few months before a recession of two down GDP quarters that occurred in the first two quarters of 2022. Even though the powers that be made changes to the definition of recession to make it look like there was no recession. Silver and gold are above their mid-November and mid-December lows. Positive for the metals.
I am always available to schedule a precious metals consultation.
Ira